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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index forecasting challenge
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index — May 2026
Predict the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reading for May 2026, released by the National Federation of Independent Business.
Sponsored by MacroSeer, Inc. — $100 prize funded by MacroSeer
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1 Prediction to Make
What percentage of small business owners will report job openings they could not fill in the May 2026 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey?
Current: 33 % (NFIB unfilled job openings — February 2026 (% of member owners, most recent)) · 47 day horizon
How ties are resolved
Closest prediction wins
The prediction nearest to the official outcome takes the highest rank.
Tiebreaker prediction
If two predictions are equally close, a second prediction submitted before resolution breaks the tie.
First to lock
If still tied, the predictor who locked their prediction earliest wins.
Random draw
If all else is equal, a cryptographically secure random draw determines the final ranking. The draw is logged and auditable.
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