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NAR Existing Home Sales forecasting challenge
NAR Existing Home Sales — March 2026
Predict the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales for March 2026, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.
Sponsored by MacroSeer, Inc. — $100 prize funded by MacroSeer
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1 Prediction to Make
How many existing homes (millions, SAAR) will NAR report were sold in March 2026?
Current: 4.26 millions, SAAR (NAR Existing Home Sales — February 2026 (millions, SAAR, most recent)) · 27 day horizon
How ties are resolved
Closest prediction wins
The prediction nearest to the official outcome takes the highest rank.
Tiebreaker prediction
If two predictions are equally close, a second prediction submitted before resolution breaks the tie.
First to lock
If still tied, the predictor who locked their prediction earliest wins.
Random draw
If all else is equal, a cryptographically secure random draw determines the final ranking. The draw is logged and auditable.
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